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Current Discussions

Peak Airline – A Thought Experiment in the_Loop

Thought experiment: the reason the aviation industry is slow to act on 4-Dimensional Trajectory Management (4DTM) is that there's a widespread but unspoken acknowledgement that covid hastened the passing of 'peak airline' and if it'll take 10 years to implement, it'll be a waste of resources. It’s best to turtle instead and keep all you can during the inevitable winding down and replacement of the industry. (More)

Will IATA Survive? A discussion in the_Loop

A couple of years ago that would have been a ludicrous question, but there are worrying signs that IATA’s best years may be well and truly behind it. As is usually the case, this is due to a perfect storm of circumstances, some of which IATA seems to be oblivious to and others that it is willfully ignoring. Here are five things that could collectively spell the end for IATA. (More)

Back to Normal? Maybe, but not so soon. A Discussion in the_Loop

We keep hearing the Airline Industry commentariat and other views of the industry's recovery trajectory from the COVID-19 catastrophe. There's palpable excitement about increasing flying in some parts of the world. But it's tempered in others, with lockdowns and border closures coming and going, messing with plans, wellbeing and airline fortunes. It remains challenging and somewhat a reality check reading the history and latest projections for the timing for a return to pre-COVID. Initially, six months to a year was the gauge, then a year, maybe two? Now it's three, maybe five. And the "zone of uncertainty" is getting more prominent as the charts project forward. All this information is in the public domain. But all these projections become somewhat uncertain when contrasted with the opportunistic changes some airlines have effected throughout the pandemic. (More)

The Existential Threats On the Other Side of Covid

Coming

It's not over. Some might be wishfully thinking that COVID is beginning to recede. But sticking one's head up out of the gopher hole, and you'll see dark clouds behind the fleeting glimpses of sunshine. COVID was the catalyst, but the structure of our industry will be the drag on the recovery as the environment, balance sheet repair, and AAVs conspire to totally reset the foundations.

In Pursuit of a Unified Industry

Coming

Covid-19 has devastated the airline industry, but it’s also provided it with a unique opportunity. Every airline on the planet needs to consider its strategic survival at the same time. Such a  condition has never happened before, and many would hope it never happens again. The commentariat keeps telling us that a more robust and modern industry will take collaboration. Great words, but how serious are we all, and what needs to be done? Especially when the NEW IATA DG tells us all on a recent CAPA webinar that everyone is happy with the way things are.

The Strategy Maturity Matrix - Which layer does your airline occupy?

Coming

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