Trajectory Based Operations - Science Fiction or Saviour?

October 31, 2019

This October, we attended the Aircraft Commerce MRO Ops IT Conference to deliver a Keynote presentation about Trajectory Based Operations (TBO). The Aircraft Commerce Conference calendar is always brilliantly organised. It produces continually relevant and forward-looking speaker and supplier material on which airlines can base their operational strategy and technology considerations. Information about Aircraft Commerce and the conference calendar can be viewed on the Aircraft Commerce site here.

TBO is the industry’s current strategic response to growing congestion and delays, which are only forecast to worsen on the back of the expected passenger and concurrent airline sector growth over the next decade or so.

Growth forecasts are alarming, especially given that system delays are already at unacceptable levels at certain times of the year in some places and almost a daily occurrence in others. Irrespective of whether one agrees with the projected endpoints of the many forecasts in circulation, currently, the predictable growth is on-trend and barring further big shocks, the industry has some critical issues to deal with, sooner rather than later.

TBO is being advanced by ICAO, Eurocontrol, NAS, Air Services (Australia), the FAA, and to a somewhat different extent, IATA - and others as the solution to keeping the industry moving. While often overused, the phrase “paradigm change” is appropriate when considering the goals and requirements that airlines will have to meet in a TBO operating environment. Whether the decade endpoints are reached in a decade, or a few more years, airlines should be considering it now. Waiting for a technology supplier to come up with a box that “does” TBO is a fraught strategy.

Our keynote at the conference introduces the background to TBO and challenges thinking by contrasting the industry’s capability today and the requirements for TBO to science fiction. We also look back on some past industry challenges to tap the urgency in moving toward a TBO future. Please have a look at the presentation from the conference on our YouTube channel here. It picks up after our introduction by Charles Williams, the CEO of Aircraft Commerce Magazine.